Philippines #1 Problem in the Next Decade-Overpopulation

Last January, while doing our snowbirding sojourn in Marinduque, I was struck by the numerous children running in the streets both in town and in the rural areas during the weekends when there are no classes. I observed specially that there are more children in the rural areas than in the town proper. I commented to my wife that Filipinos main business is making children and if this continue, there will a time when the Philippines can not feed its population, resulting in discontent and malnutrition. I realize that birth control is not encourage by the Catholic Church and I believe this is the main reason for the problem. My observation was confirmed by a recent article published last April 25 on Financial Times in the Philippines titled “ South-east Asia Llama breaks into a Trot.” Here's a summary of the article. Since 2004, remittances have grown from $7bn-$8bn to $20bn, nearly 10 per cent of GDP. The fact that so many people need to work abroad is a sign of the economy’s inability to generate enough jobs. But remittances are serving a purpose and have held up well since the financial crisis. The Philippines is emerging as a solution to the labor shortages of mature economies the world over. First of all, the increased remittances by our overseas workers is a direct reflection of our country’s inability to employ its own people, which inexorably continues to worsen as an inevitable consequence of our population’s rapid growth. It is increasingly likely that overseas employment will dry up as a consequence of Peak Oil and the worsening global economy. Philippine call centers have grown exponentially, trumping those in India. Revenues from back office businesses have quintupled over six years from $2bn to $11bn.” What this really means is that Indian wages have improved to the point that we are now the world's cheapest English-speaking labor. The CIA World Fact Book (www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world -factbook/geos/rp.html) estimates that our population will be close to 104 million by July of this year. Our National Statistics Coordination Board (www.nscb.gov.ph/secstat/d_popnProj.asp) estimates our 2040 population at about 141,670,000. So over the next 28 years, we will have to generate food, clothing, employment and housing for another 37 million people. With regards to housing: Natural catastrophes are increasing in frequency for one simple reason: all the safe places for housing are already occupied, forcing our people to build in hazardous areas. Quoting a 2006 paper by Ando Siringan and Kevin Rodolfo: “The Philippine population, mostly residing on coastal plains, is squeezed, figuratively, between the two jaws of a vice: its own rapid growth, and the subsidence and flooding generated by its own use of groundwater...Subsidence and aggravated flooding from groundwater overuse share the root cause of many other Philippine problems. Along with increasing deforestation, soil erosion and lethal landslides, garbage, over-crowded classrooms, joblessness and, to the detriment of the Filipino family, the country’s increasing economic reliance on overseas workers, it stems from rapid population growth, with no consistent governmental policy to moderate it since 1969 (Acoseba, 2003a). From 1995–2000, the national population grew annually by 2.36% (National Statistics Commission, 2000). A formal Population Management Program,created by the government’s Commission on Population to develop measures for decreasing this growth, reported in a press release published in three parts (Acoseba, 2003a; 2003b; 2003c) that its recommendations were embodied in a Reproductive Health Care congressional bill. Largely because of concerns about abortion and contraception, that bill languished in committee for two years. It was supposed to be the prelude to a proposed Population and Development Act, but the president threatened to veto it in 2003 and offered no alternative means for managing population growth.” Do you agree with my assessment that overpopulation will be the Philippines number 1 problem in the next decade?